INTEGRATED ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND RELIABILITY MODELING OF POWER SYSTEM GROWTH
Optimizing The Net Economic and Societal Benefits
Daniel Cohan, Ph.D., Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Rice University
Leonardo Duenas-Osorio, Ph.D., Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Rice University
Peter Hartley, Ph.D., Department of Economics, Rice University
Kenneth Medlock, Ph.D., Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University
Dr. Daniel Cohan
Dr. Leonardo Duenas Osorio
Dr. Peter Hartley
Dr. Kenneth Medlock
A projected 40% increase in electricity consumption by 2030, coupled
with the retirement of many older power plants, could result in the
construction of new power generation facilities equivalent to almost
half of current capacity nationwide. The electric transmission grid,
already strained in some places by current loads, will require
corresponding levels of construction to accommodate this growth while
maintaining reliability and efficiency. The construction of new
generation and transmission capacity involves large capital investment
that requires integrated assessment of their impacts on affordable,
reliable, and sustainable electricity production.
At a time when many U.S. cities are struggling to meet federal air
quality standards and climate change is attracting heightened concern,
the need for new power plants can be problematic. These new power plants
represent new sources of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
New plants also provide an opportunity to adopt cleaner and more
efficient technologies. The siting, design, and environmental
performance of new power plants, along with actions to improve existing
plants or curb demand growth, will critically affect environmental
sustainability, energy reliability, and economic growth.
Specific growth in power systems has rarely been analyzed along with the
economic, environmental and reliability aspects of power systems. This
research will develop and integrate state-of-the-science models of
energy markets, power flow, and air quality to evaluate the
affordability, reliability, and environmental impacts of alternative
scenarios for satisfying electricity demand and optimizing the net
economic and societal benefits of power systems. We will use Texas as a
test case since it is predicted to experience more growth in consumption
and generating capacity than any other state in the next 20 years.
Research objectives will:
1. Develop models describing electricity supply and demand in a
deregulated market, the functioning and reliability of transmission
systems, and power plant impacts on air quality, climate, and human
2. Design data sharing structures and methodologies for coupling three
3. Apply the linked models to examine questions of significance to
industry stakeholders, policy makers, and scientists.
Final Report: Click here.
Potential emissions reductions from grandfathered coal power plants in the United States, Daniel S. Cohan, Catherine Douglass.
Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurrican events, James Winkler, Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio, Robert Stein, Devika Subramanian.
Interface Network Models for Complex Urban Infrastructure Systems, James Winkler, Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio, A.M.ASCE, Robert Stein, Devika Subramanian.
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